The Trump Effect

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The Daily Point Headers

4Love him or hate him, Donald Trump is having a significant impact on the presidential election.  So far he’s the only candidate to show a broad appeal across party lines with undeclared voters and working class Americans.  Even among Hispanics he’s outperforming other Republicans…evidenced by the election results in Nevada

Seems that the more he’s attacked, the better he performs in polling.  Today is a huge day with five primaries in FL, OH, MO, NC and IL.  Predictions lean toward Trump winning at least three tonight, FL, NC and IL…toss up with Kasich having the edge in OH and Cruz running a strong enough second in MO to make it interesting…


In the midst of a run that seems to gain momentum every time he’s attacked, Chaser Sibile Marcellus covered a book for tonight’s Chasing News that came out last year called “Never Enough”. According to the New York Times Book Review it’s an “evenhanded” account of Trump’s career but certainly highlights the many failures in his past.  

Here’s an excerpt from the New York Times Book Review:

“Never Enough” is an admirably straight­forward, evenhanded but nonetheless damning account of Trump’s life, including his failed marriages and businesses and his emergence as a reality television star and presidential ­contender. Trump provided some access before cutting off D’Antonio and his research assistant after they dared to interview someone on his long list of enemies.

 

This access nonetheless enables D’Antonio to showcase Trump’s tendency to turn any question into a discussion of himself. Asked to name a book that influenced him, he replies: “I would love to read. I’ve had many best sellers, as you know, and ‘The Art of the Deal’ was one of the ­biggest-selling books of all time — that’s really what started this whole thing.” Soon he’s on to “The Apprentice” — “the No. 1 show on television” — but not a book at all.
I didn’t find any major revelations in “Never Enough,” but D’Antonio’s book usefully plants Trump’s rise, fall and comeback in the context of broader social, psychological and technological trends — the rise of the Me Generation, the “culture of narcissism” described by Christopher Lasch, the Internet and social media — and brings the story forward to Trump’s announcement this year that he would seek the Republican nomination.

Even Trump’s own Republican rivals seem to have a hard time swallowing the possibility of a Trump nomination with Senator Rubio saying the other day that it’s getting harder everyday to consider supporting him if he wins.  

From my perspective as a radio & TV host, talking with people daily from all income and education levels I can attest that his support is very strong among non-traditional Republicans.  Union drivers, contractors and even teachers are all saying a similar thing when asked why they like Trump.  The most common response? “He’s the only candidate talking about jobs.”  Issues like immigration hit the job theme head-on with a huge impact on entry level and lower income level workers.  Many people feel that the politicians have sold out working and middle class America for political expediency and worse, to line their own pockets and those of their donors.  Trump is direct, aggressive and unafraid to be unscripted.

In 1996, I was the deputy chairman for Pat Buchanan’s presidential run.  His message, like Trump’s, was populist and nationalist.  Unfortunately for Pat, his personality publically was more like Ted Cruz, who’s somewhat cerebral and unappealing to the average person.  Even with Pat’s strong support that enabled a victory in New Hampshire and  Louisiana, it wasn’t enough to sustain.  Trump on the other hand, speaks like average people and is far more relatable.  

2He’s taking a lot of heat for the violent nature of his events and comments that the candidate has made about the fights at his rallies.  Step out of politics for a minute and think about how normal people react to adversity. How many people would also want to punch the guy in the face who came in ready to disrupt an event and cause havoc?  For context, let’s remember who the disrupters of Trump events are…Black Lives Matter, who have had a reported history of members calling for violence and murder of police officers.  

The situation at political rallies, especially in a hotly contested race is tense at best.  When there are protesters entering for the purpose of disruption, like in Chicago where they were successful and in Ohio when the Secret Service had to step in, the climate becomes hostile and  threatening.  The strategy that Trump’s detractors are using Trump’s aggressive style as a reason to fear him is backfiring, as his image is that of a ‘plain-talking everyman’ who just walked into a bar.

US Senator Ted Cruz

The biggest loser in this will likely be Senator Ted Cruz as he’s doubled down on the attacks against Trump and has been characterized as almost apologetic regarding far left hostile groups like moveon.org.  Let’s face it, the so-called establishment GOP will never tolerate a far right conservative like Cruz as the nominee…unless they accept a loss to Hillary hoping to fight again in the future.  If Trump were not in the race, the target of the Establishment would be Cruz, just seems he either isn’t politically savvy enough to understand that or he’s disingenuous about his goals for the nation and the party.  Either way, if Trump is not a first ballot victor look for a modern day “Corrupt Bargain” with the ascension of a moderate and controllable (read weak) candidate to save the day.  Perhaps Rubio’s tactic of encouraging Ohio supporters to vote Kasich is the start of a deal.

What’s interesting is that if you look at the breakdown of Trump’s supporters based on exit polls from New Hampshire, Trump soundly defeated Kasich in the battle for undeclared/independent voters.

This should be exactly what the GOP is looking for.  He also won across the board among voters with higher education credentials and those without.  This is the kind of diversity that the GOP has been calling for for many years.  Now that there’s an opportunity, way beyond nominees in the past few cycles, it’s rejected seemingly  because corporate elite interests that govern the national party can’t control the messenger.

1The bottom line for Donald Trump is that no one pretends that he’s a true blue conservative Republicans (at least I don’t).  But he’s a stark contrast to the politically correct culture and he is an unapologetic American patriot.  His message and delivery all have a common theme of ‘jobs for Americans’…’security for Americans’…and he presents himself as tough enough to be a champion that many disenfranchised people are looking for in the next President.

Although no one can predict the outcome today, there’s a clear trend among the polling that Trump is going to have a very good night, Rubio may drop out and Kasich will justify staying in as the Trump alternative.  If Cruz pulls out a win in Missouri, this is a three man race heading into the next round.

Here are the forecasts from accomplished pollster, Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight.com:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’ll know how accurate the forecasts are by tomorrow morning…See you on Twitter!

 

 

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